Recent news headlines have highlighted that there are now 500,000 more sellers than homebuyers. However, these headlines lack nuance. As we move through 2025, the U.S. housing market is telling two very different stories, and they’re happening at the same time. National numbers might make things look steady, but if you zoom in, the picture changes fast depending on where you are. It’s a classic case of averages hiding the extremes.
Nationally, Things Look Pretty Balanced
On the surface, the market looks calm. Inventory is sitting around a 5-month supply, right in the middle between a seller’s and buyer’s market. Home prices are inching up by about 2% year-over-year, and listings are spending around 50 days on the market. Around 35% of sellers are cutting prices, but that’s more of a market adjusting than collapsing.
Sounds stable, right? But here’s the thing: national stats are just averages, and they’re smoothing over some major local differences. The real action is happening at the state level.
The Great Construction Gap
What’s really driving the split? New construction. Some states are building a ton of homes. Others, almost none.
In places like Florida, Texas, and Colorado, builders have been busy. Inventory in these states is up about 30% compared to before the pandemic. That’s led to more competition, longer selling times, and price cuts as builders work to clear out unsold homes. Prices per square foot in these areas are around $250, and in some cases, even dropping.
Now flip that and look at the Northeast, especially here in New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. These states are barely building anything new (save for Ocean County). Connecticut’s inventory is down 76% from pre-2020 levels; New York is down 44%. With so few homes for sale, prices are climbing fast (around 15% since 2022), and buyers have little room to negotiate. Median listing prices per square foot here are around $350 and rising.
Why This Matters
For buyers, sellers, and investors, this split means very different realities depending on location. In high-construction states, it’s becoming a buyer’s market—more homes, better deals, and longer time to decide. But in low-construction areas, it’s still ultra-competitive, with affordability worsening as inventory stays tight.
There are also early warning signs that some other high-growth states like Utah, Nevada, and Washington could be next in line for softening prices if current trends hold.
Bottom Line: It’s All About Location Right Now
National housing numbers might look balanced, but that’s not the full story. In reality, the market is deeply regional. Some areas are softening fast due to overbuilding, while others are stuck in a crunch from years of underbuilding.
Unless something big changes, such as a serious shift in the job market, these trends will probably stick around. So, whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching the market, don’t let national headlines fool you. The real story is local, and it’s unfolding very differently depending on where you look.
