Dollar General has surged to become one of the standout stock performers during the first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Since the January 20 inauguration, the discount retailer’s stock has jumped more than 36%, making it the third-best performing company in the S&P 500 over that period—behind only Palantir and Philip Morris International. The company has not only beaten the broader consumer staples sector, which is up 6%, but has also outperformed major competitors like Dollar Tree and Walmart.
This impressive rally is being credited to a broader market rotation toward defensive stocks amid economic uncertainty, particularly surrounding inflation and newly implemented tariffs. Many investors have shifted their focus away from high-growth tech stocks and into more stable plays like food and household goods. Dollar General, with its strong focus on consumables, has benefited from this trend. Its lower reliance on Chinese imports—just 4% of total purchases—has helped shield the company from the harsher effects of new tariff measures, which have hit other retailers more directly.
In April, when markets were shaken by the announcement of a new round of 10% reciprocal tariffs, Dollar General remained resilient, gaining 5% while the S&P 500 declined by more than 2%. Analysts attribute this strength to the company’s core business model: offering low-cost, everyday essentials that people continue to buy regardless of broader economic pressures. Last year, consumables made up over 82% of the company’s sales, compared to less than 50% at Dollar Tree. This product mix has helped Dollar General weather economic volatility and maintain customer demand, even as competitors with greater exposure to discretionary goods and online shopping struggle.
Despite the recent gains, the stock is still recovering from a sharp plunge last August following a disappointing earnings report. It remains more than 36% below its 52-week high and nearly 65% down from its all-time peak in October 2022. CEO Todd Vasos, who returned to lead the company in October 2023, has been spearheading a back-to-basics turnaround focused on boosting store productivity and strengthening the company’s core operations.
Analysts warn that challenges remain. Dollar General continues to face stiff competition from retail giants like Walmart, Amazon, and Costco, particularly as Walmart’s e-commerce platform and delivery membership service, Walmart+, gains traction with consumers. Economic headwinds could also intensify if the current pause on tariffs expires without a new trade deal, or if proposed changes to federal support programs like SNAP reduce spending among the company’s core low-income customer base.
Nevertheless, the company appears to be benefiting from an influx of middle-income shoppers trading down during tough economic times. While analysts note that demand remains solid, they caution that the company’s ability to fully meet that demand could be tested in the months ahead.
